outrightArb
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
+669.23% profit
Live
AI Value Picks
Mathematically-backed recommendations with positive expected value — powered by prediction market analysis and Kelly criterion sizing.
Updated: Saturday, May 9, 2026
6
Total Picks
+52.2%
Avg EV
$300.00
Total Staked
$156.57
Expected Profit
60%
AI Accuracy · 30/50
🔥 5
Arbitrage Opportunities
9 risk-free arbs detected across 30 events
outrightArb
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
+152.21% profit
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Netanyahu out by...?
+103.25% profit
Today's Picks
6 positive-EV opportunities identified
football✗ MISSFinal: 0-0
Hull City vs Millwall
+74.7% EV
Recommended Bet
Millwall
Odds
2.45x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$122.50
Confidence
71%
Confidence Score71/100
football✓ HITFinal: 3-2
Levante vs Osasuna
+73.6% EV
Recommended Bet
Levante
Odds
2.63x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$131.50
Confidence
66%
Confidence Score66/100
football✓ HITFinal: 2-1
Torino vs Sassuolo
+48.2% EV
Recommended Bet
Torino
Odds
2.45x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$122.50
Confidence
60%
Confidence Score60/100
football✓ HITFinal: 2-1
Standard Liege vs OH Leuven
+47.8% EV
Recommended Bet
Standard Liege
Odds
2.20x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$110.00
Confidence
67%
Confidence Score67/100
football✓ HITFinal: 3-2
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
+44.5% EV
Recommended Bet
Borussia Dortmund
Odds
1.50x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$75.00
Confidence
96%
Confidence Score96/100
football✓ HITFinal: 1-0
Lens vs Nantes
+24.3% EV
Recommended Bet
Lens
Odds
1.38x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$69.00
Confidence
90%
Confidence Score90/100
Our Methodology
How we identify and size high-EV opportunities
How We Calculate EV
Expected Value is computed as:
EV = (AI Prob × Decimal Odds) − 1
Our AI assigns probabilities by aggregating prediction market signals, on-chain data, and historical performance, then compares them to the market-implied price to surface edge.
Stake Sizing
Stakes are sized using the Half-Kelly Criterion — the mathematically optimal formula for bankroll growth while limiting drawdown risk.
f = (bp − q) / b × 0.5
Half-Kelly halves the theoretically optimal bet fraction, reducing variance and protecting your bankroll during model uncertainty.
Confidence Score
A 0–100 score reflecting the model's certainty in its probability estimate. Higher is better.
- Data quality and completeness
- Prediction market liquidity
- Model agreement across indicators
AI-powered analysis
Polymarket data
Updated daily
Kelly Criterion sizing
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. These picks are generated by an AI model and are provided for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. Prediction markets and sports betting carry inherent risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.