Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Related Markets

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

7%-4.0%

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

39%+11.0%

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

89%-2.0%

Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

18%+3.0%

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?

22%

FAQ