US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Odds Comparison
20 outcomes · 1 source| Outcome | Implied Probability | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? — No | 100.0% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? — No | 100.0% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? — No | 100.0% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? — No | 99.1% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? — No | 93.0% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? — No | 89.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — No | 82.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 73.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — No | 64.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Yes | 53.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — No | 46.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — Yes | 35.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — No | 26.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — Yes | 17.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? — Yes | 10.5% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? — Yes | 7.0% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? — Yes | 0.9% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? — Yes | 0.0% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? — Yes | 0.0% | Polymarket |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? — Yes | 0.0% | Polymarket |
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — No
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? — Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? — Yes
Market Info
- Event Type
- prediction
- Data Sources
- Polymarket
- Last Updated
- May 9, 2026